When Bob was a lad he was very young!! Only joking! Our first real run-in with Bob was his concern over his goldfish. He called them Mabel and Fred and he fed them every day faithfully. Then one day he discovered Fred was floating upside down in the bowl.
He stopped and handed Bob an air pistol, which we found out later he had stolen. Bob was very friendly with two little blond girls who lived two ie up and they often played in our garden. My Mike Archibald cartoon got a lot of mileage. He met a German hitch-hiker Whhat Wolfgang and he told Bob he had not eaten that day and Upright tits had run out of money. They had arrived at Bordeaux in the south of France.
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In April, I introduced Tues 11 to an unsuspecting audience.
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In April, I introduced Tues 11 to an unsuspecting audience. The discipline of the weekly blog has helped me stay focussed on the progression of the current bull market. How have I been doing? On which side of Santa's list do I belong? I even call the market a 'House of Cards' in late May. In May I postulated that the long end of the bond market was more 'anchored' that in past cycles and that the Fed would be frustrated in raising rates too aggressively for fears that the curve would prematurely invert.
The lack of inflation and resultant lower for longer bond yields has prevented a meaningful rotation from growth to cyclical value leadership. I also called for a 'fade' of the energy rally after the OPEC induced run-up. Nice call. Still waiting for that call to pan out. My Mike Archibald cartoon got a lot of mileage. Naughty indeed! This is the key to staying with the trend.
Inter-market action must always confirm the trend change or it should be questioned. Overall not a bad set of calls. Never confuse a bull market with brains. The sentiment turn is starting to show up in fund flows, with bond funds finally losing assets to equity based funds. The risks are now beginning to be weighted towards a sharp correction, perhaps as early as January.
The Fed will be keen to dampen the risk appetite that has been unleashed by the recent run in asset prices. Also, watch for continued government intervention and regulation of the cryptocurrency markets. The Fed's attempts to 'normalize' policy continue to bump up against the secular downward pressure on longer dated bond yields.
The Eurozone is running hotter than at any time since the financial crisis. The potential for a sharp sell-off in bonds has never been higher. Should that produce a sympathetic sell-off for stocks, the long awaited rotation into 'inflation proof' cyclicals could ensue.
China remains a huge negative wild card. I talked about the potential for a 'kitchen sink' phase for the Chinese economy in my October 'Ji Whizz' blog.
The Chinese yield curve has now inverted. As usual, the U. The euphoria surrounding the tax-bill is misplaced and this second 'Trump Bump', like the first, is unlikely to last. Talk about a Christmas sugar high!
Tax relief is unlikely to offset rate hikes over the next few years. Corporations are unlikely to do more than increase dividends and buy-backs with the reparation of capital.
Global growth is likely to peak next year, given both China, and the removal of monetary accommodation. The potential for a growth slowdown could start to get priced in by mid next year. A correction is long overdue. Remember the Pat Taylor rule: "keep buying util the last day of the bull". As I have discussed, valuation is a plug variable in the stock market equation and the momentum we are currently experiencing will be difficult to reverse.
However, I can now be convinced that the "bull market in pessimism" that has accompanied this epic 8 year long rally in global risk assets may finally be over. The healthy scepticism that was once supportive of the market seems to be fading. I am reminded of Warren Buffet's maxim to be nervous when others are greedy.
Bitcoin is proof that speculation and greed will always accompany a bull market. I'm already short bonds. Vix is dormant and the XIU is not at risk versus the dma. October September August July June May April March February January December November I'm busy working on my blog posts. Watch this space! Naughty and Nice. December 19, Bob Decker. Recent Posts. Over the Valley. October 22, Light Switch.
October 15, October 8, This site was designed with the.
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When Bob was a lad he was very young!! Only joking! Our first real run-in with Bob was his concern over his goldfish. He called them Mabel and Fred and he fed them every day faithfully. Then one day he discovered Fred was floating upside down in the bowl. He gathered up the local teeny tots and he buried Fred at the top of the back garden, with a small cross and they all put flowers like daisys and buttercups on the grave.
Both his Mum Alice and I went along with this, how could you argue? We bought a tortoise for him later, it was South American and it hissed like a snake and lived mostly on lettuce. Bob called it Humphrey. It was always mooching up and down the back garden and Billy always went looking for it when he came home from school and of course feed it, happy days! I t quite liked being picked up. Then winter started and come the middle of December we decided that it was too cold for Humphrey as he was acting very drowsy and sleepy as the weather got colder.
We made a cardboard box his winter home with straw and put it up in the linen cupboard in the bathroom. Bob still kept feeding it but it stopped eating and we presumed it was hibernating, so we left it alone over the winter. Well come the Spring and as it was well into March, we lifted Humphrey out and took him out to the back garden.
To cut a long story short he just never moved for weeks and we had to pronounce him dead eventually. We thought the funeral of the goldfish was bad, Humphrey became the biggest event in the locality for a long time. Humphrey had to have a coffin and was buried with all the honours, half the street came for the funeral, flowers and all. It was a great send off.
Bob was very friendly with two little blond girls who lived two doors up and they often played in our garden. One hot Summers day Bob and the two girls were out playing in the sunshine. With only little knickers on.
Bob had decided to show them how to use soap to wash themselves. Unfortunately the soap they used was coal dust from the coal bunker. Bob showed them how to rub it into their hands and wipe themselves all over. What a state they were in! Mum had to bath all three, and wash their hair, and wash their clothes and dry them.
We had a pet dog called Bruce, he was brown and white and was a sort of a Labrador but really a mongrel, who actually bit at least thirteen people including a policeman, who tried to catch him when the dog was guarding the local pub. Alice rushed out got the dog to let go, mended his trousers and long johns and treated the bite on his leg. He refused to blame the dog saying it was his fault.
After we caught him at it once we had to watch him like a hawk every time he had a lollipop! Every chance he got he would slip out the door and wait at the gate for his Mum. He refused to use the toilets because people could look over the door while he was in there. Bob marched up to the teacher pulled her arm out and sat on her knee. The poor teacher was tortured from then on, because everyone wanted a turn to sit on her knee.
Then later on there was this older unhappy teacher, who came into the classroom after there had been a bit of messing about in the classroom, and a picture had fallen off the wall.
She demanded to know who did it. Well Billy stood up and took the blame. She marched Bob to the principal who sent for his Mummy. The upshot was the old teacher was moved from the school, and Bob was praised for his honesty.
Bob had a pal in primary school called Franko and they were the best of friends. Problem solved all round! Then Bob started swimming, he took to water like a fish.
We were on holidays in Majorca and he slipped away after breakfast and we searched everywhere for him. We eventually found him jumping in and out of the water, and trying to do the doggie paddle in the swimming pool outside, all on his own. We were so relieved!! We bought him his first bicycle and he very quickly learned to ride it.
He called his Mummy out to the street to watch him perform. We lived on a hill at the time. At the bottom of our back garden there was a field and then a Crematorium and a cemetery. Then one day after school he disappeared and his friends were all running in and out. After another hour had gone by everybody in the street were looking for him. We were beginning to talk about calling in the police. After another good search around the house his mother was passing the coal bunker and heard a rattle.
We had all searched the coal bunker but this time we got a torch and carefully went through the inside. He had only covered himself in coal and was fast asleep!!
What a relief! Then one day a policeman called and wanted to speak to Bob. Apparently his daughter who was a bit backward was being accosted by this bully and Bob kicked him on the shins. The policeman thanked Billy for sticking up for his daughter. The local priest called at our house looking for Bob to join the choir. Bob was not interested and said no and wanted to go out and play. Bob was a good drawer at school, and he drew his daddy with a halo on his head like a saint.
He told the teacher that his daddy was not a saint but going bald and he was covering it up. Then there was a council competition and Bob drew a tabernacle with stained glass windows, which won first prize.
In the town hall he marched up to the stage with everyone clapping and was greeted by Joyce Grenfell the BBC broadcaster. His prize was, a box of sweets, colouring pens, and a water colouring set.
You would think he won a million pounds. We know this because he told his teacher what happened. The Bishop was in school one day preparing the pupils for First Communium. He asked Bob what was the most important thing in life. I remember we had a Triumph Herald saloon car, and we were taking my father and mother to Spain on holidays. My parents were sitting in the back and Bob had settled on the floor sitting between the two front seats.
This was in the days before seat belts. I was driving along a French motorway at seventy miles an hour, when suddenly the car slowed up, I panicked but it was then OK. This happened every few minutes over about a half hour. I had a sick feeling in my stomach that something was seriously wrong with the car and I was very apprehensive about having to stop on the Motorway. Then just when I thought the slowing down had stopped it started again and I felt something brush against my leg, I quickly looked down and caught Bob with his two hands pulling back on the handbrake.
One day while Bob was playing outside the house a boy of about fifteen was passing on a bicycle. He stopped and handed Bob an air pistol, which we found out later he had stolen. His mother took it from Bob and ran after the boy on the bicycle, dragged him off the bicycle and shoved the pistol into his pocket and told him not to ever gave Bob any such thing again or else!
He just stood up at the end of the race and bending over, pulled his trunks up. Once he entered into a contest for Superyouth where you had to run metres, highjump, javelin throw etc.
The last competition was standing astride a low bench and jump up and down for two minutes while a guy counted the number of times you jumped, he could also disqualify some jumps you made.
Bob was one event behind this other contestant, who was the local favourite, when it came to throwing the medicine behind you whilst lying on your back. Bob threw it so far behind him that it bounced against the wall of the Gym bounced back and hit one of the bystanders. This meant it was all down to the counting of the jumps astride the bench. Bob was disqualified for so many jumps that he lost. I still cannot understand why he was disqualified to this day. When we came out Bob wanted to go to the toilet so we crossed the wide road and everyone we asked told us the toilets were up the street.
We thought they must have meant the other side of the street. The street was very wide and we stopped on a traffic island halfway across.
There was this kindly looking Spanish woman dressed in black who was looking at Bob and smiling so I pulled out my phrase book and asked her all the words for toilet, gentlemens, Senors, lavatory, but she just looked up to heaven and held up her arms. On a Sunday I always sat in the front room reading the papers. Then I phoned the police. Apparently the field behind us was used during the second world war to train the Home Guard in throwing grenades and shooting.
This must have been one they missed clearing up. We were lucky as Bob and Johnny had been throwing it up and down the garden playing soldiers with it, before they brought it in so they told me. Angel guardians were working overtime that day.